← The Rare Den Collectibles PTM Store Championship
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 1
at The Rare Den Collectibles PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-4-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.3%
avg ELO +3.7 per match
expected value
53.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1300
· median 1300
· range 1291–1309
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1068
Q1 1172
Q3 1328
1418
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 16.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.2% | +13.6 |
| Wind Chess | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 16.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 39.7% | -7.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
